Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARL-16 in Bermuda from 14 Sep 2016 15:00 UTC to 19 Sep 2016 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-16

in Bermuda

19 Sep 2016 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARL-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Bermuda
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (24 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Bermuda)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	14 Sep 2016 15:00	74	---	No people
2	14 Sep 2016 21:00	74	---	No people
3	15 Sep 2016 03:00	74	---	No people
4	15 Sep 2016 09:00	74	---	No people
5	15 Sep 2016 15:00	74	---	No people
6	15 Sep 2016 21:00	83	---	No people
7	16 Sep 2016 03:00	111	---	No people
8	16 Sep 2016 09:00	120	---	No people
9	16 Sep 2016 15:00	130	---	No people
10	16 Sep 2016 21:00	130	---	No people
11	17 Sep 2016 03:00	130	---	No people
12	17 Sep 2016 09:00	130	---	No people
13	17 Sep 2016 15:00	130	---	No people
14	17 Sep 2016 21:00	130	---	No people
15	18 Sep 2016 03:00	139	---	No people
16	18 Sep 2016 09:00	139	---	No people
17	18 Sep 2016 15:00	139	---	No people
18	18 Sep 2016 21:00	148	---	No people
19	19 Sep 2016 03:00	148	---	No people
20	19 Sep 2016 09:00	157	---	No people	Bermuda

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	14 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	20000 people	17, -25	Cape Verde
2	14 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.4, -26.5
3	15 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.6, -27.5
4	15 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.6, -29.3
5	15 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.7, -30.4
6	15 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.8, -31.4
7	16 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.9, -32.5
8	16 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.3, -33.4
9	16 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.4, -34.3
10	16 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.8, -35.6
11	17 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.5, -37
12	17 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.2, -38.2
13	17 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.3, -39
14	17 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.1, -40.4
15	18 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.8, -41.3
16	18 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.7, -42.3
17	18 Sep 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18, -43.4
18	18 Sep 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.3, -45
19	19 Sep 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.3, -46.3
20	19 Sep 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.2, -47.7
20	19 Sep 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.6, -49.7
20	20 Sep 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.1, -52.1
20	20 Sep 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	19.9, -54.6
20	21 Sep 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	21, -57.1
20	22 Sep 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24, -62.2
20	23 Sep 2016 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	69000 people	27, -65.2	Bermuda
20	24 Sep 2016 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	29.5, -65.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Hamilton, Bermuda. This height is estimated for 24 Sep 2016 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 45 of 25 Sep 2016 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Sep 2016 09:00	Hamilton	Bermuda	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.